Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2008/iii/paper-46/1/a/solution

The mean ratio is , so its logarithm is exactly ; the baseline coefficient cancels. Under the stated asymptotic normal approximation, the Wald confidence interval for is . Exponentiation is monotone and therefore preserves the interval's coverage event. Hence
The standard error of is not needed for this confidence interval: the Poisson regression already supplies the standard error of the contrast . It would be incorrect to combine the two reported standard errors as if the mean ratio depended on both coefficients independently.

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