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ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2009/iii/paper-36/1/f/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 36 1 f Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For the uniform prior, write for the pooled success count in trials. Conditional on , exchangeability makes all placements of the successes equally likely. The successes in the second batch therefore have a hypergeometric distribution, and the factor in question isThis is hypergeometric allocation of exchangeable Bernoulli counts: sample positions without replacement from a population of positions containing successes. The uniform-count predictive property gives and , soAs varies with fixed, also varies. Therefore alone is not a normalized hypergeometric distribution over ; its normalization factor is essential.
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