Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2010/ii/paper-2/29j/c/solution

Write and assume . The scalar Kalman filter reduces to
Taking reciprocal variance and dividing the mean by variance gives
Thus
Since the process noise is zero and , and . The strong law of large numbers gives almost surely. The prior's finite weight vanishes in the displayed formula, so both limits equal almost surely. A zero prior variance instead means is known, and the assertion follows directly without reciprocal-variance formulas.

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