Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2010/iii/paper-36/1/h/solution

No. A Bayes factor favouring the alternative means , but the posterior odds are . They are less than one only if . For example, prior odds of on the null hypothesis, combined with a Bayes factor of in favour of the alternative, still give posterior odds of on the null hypothesis. An unusual claim can require substantial evidence to overcome low initial plausibility.

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