Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2010/iii/paper-36/3/c/solution

Conditional on the observed data, the preceding multivariate normal distribution approximation implies that
The deviance expansion consequently gives
The sum of squares of independent standard normal distribution variables has chi-squared distribution with degrees of freedom. Hence, as a statement about the posterior distribution of the Bayesian deviance,
The data are fixed here and the parameter varies according to its posterior; this is not a claim about resampling the data.

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