Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2010/iii/paper-36/3/e/solution

Using the same Bayesian deviance convention, the deviance information criterion and Akaike information criterion are
Both combine a lack-of-fit term with a complexity penalty; smaller values are preferred among comparable models. Under the locally flat prior distribution and the regular multivariate normal distribution approximation, and , so
All fitted parameters counted in the likelihood, including unknown dispersion parameters, belong in . The equivalence need not hold for informative priors, nonregular models, or different choices of the likelihood's latent-variable representation.

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