Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2010/iii/paper-38/3/b/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2010 iii Paper 38 3 b Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The severity is an equal-weight mixture distribution of rate- and rate- exponential distributions. Its expected value isThe moment-generating function, finite exactly for , isCanceling the nonzero in the adjustment coefficient equation and multiplying by the positive denominator on givesThus the required polynomial isSince , , and the leading coefficient is positive, one root lies in and the other exceeds . Only the smaller root is in the moment-generating function domain. ConsequentlyThe rationalized expression avoids subtraction of nearly equal numbers when is small.
The erroneously chosen same-mean exponential distribution gives . Direct substitution shows , so lies strictly between the two polynomial roots, and in particular . Thereforewhile both bounds equal one at . The exponential misspecification produces a smaller claimed upper bound. The Lundberg inequality certifies for the actual mixture; it does not certify the smaller expression computed from the wrong severity law.
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