Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2010/iii/paper-38/4/b/solution

Set and . Keeping fixed in the gamma distribution family gives and . The ratio of expected process variance to variance of hypothetical means becomes
As the prior variance decreases, increases, so the credibility factor decreases. In the limit , : the risk parameter is already essentially known from the prior, leaving little need to use the noisy sample mean. The population claim expected value remains fixed throughout this comparison.

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