Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2011/ii/paper-4/27k/solution

A random row vector has a multivariate normal distribution when every real linear combination of its coordinates is normally distributed, allowing a zero-variance constant. Its law is determined by its mean and covariance. For the conditional and testing formulas assume is positive definite, so both coordinate variances and the conditional variance are positive; the given ratio already requires .
Put , with . The pair is jointly normal and , so is independent of . Its mean is , and its variance is . Hence
Standardize each coordinate with its own positive standard deviation. The standardized pairs have mean zero and covariance . Subtracting means and multiplying coordinates by positive constants leaves the sample correlation unchanged. Therefore the distribution of depends only on .
For , the stated statistic reduces algebraically to
This is strictly increasing from onto , with derivative . Under , change variables in the given Student density: . Hence
The normalizing integral is . To test against a two-sided alternative at level , compute and reject if , equivalently if
A one-sided alternative uses the corresponding one-sided tail. Singular covariance gives almost surely when both variances are nonzero, and is outside the nondegenerate density calculation.

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