Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2012/iii/paper-41/1/d/i/solution

Write and let be the normal distribution density. Set , where is the probability that attempt is unsuccessful conditional on the preceding attempts being unsuccessful. This is a sequential response selection model. For first-attempt success, the observed outcome and attempt count contribute
This likelihood conditions on baseline and assignment; the displayed response probabilities do not use . No factor for random allocation is needed when conditioning on its realized value.

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