 Solution

A null geodesic congruence is a smooth family of null geodesics filling a region without intersections there. For affine tangent $k$, the null expansion is the trace of the optical tensor: $\theta =d(\log A)/d\lambda$ for an infinitesimal pencil's area. Positive expansion means spreading; negative expansion means focusing.

For hypersurface-orthogonal generators in four dimensions, the Null Raychaudhuri equation readsThe null twist vanishes. The null energy condition implies $R_{ab}{k}^a{k}^b\ge 0$ through the Einstein field equations. An initial ${\theta }_0<0$ would force a focal point within affine distance at most $2/|{\theta }_0|$. A future-complete generator cannot develop such a point while remaining on an achronal event horizon. Thus $\boxed{\theta \ge 0}$ under the energy and global predictability/future-completeness hypotheses of Hawking's area theorem. Quantum energy-condition violations or failure of those global assumptions remove the conclusion.

The event horizon is the global boundary $\partial J^{-}({\mathcal{I}}^{+})$ and depends on the whole future. An apparent horizon on a chosen spacelike slice is the outermost marginally outer trapped surface, ordinarily ${\theta }_{\mathrm{out}}=0$, ${\theta }_{\mathrm{in}}<0$. It is quasi-local and slice-dependent; its tube need not be null.

For a shell arriving at $v=0$, the final horizon is $r=2M$. Before arrival, outgoing flat-space rays obey $dr/dv=1/2$. Tracing this horizon backward gives $r=2M+v/2$ until its beginning at $r=0$, $v=-4M$. No apparent horizon exists in that earlier flat region, explicitly illustrating the event horizon's dependence on future collapse.