Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2013/ia/paper-2/12f/a/solution

Let mean that the selected coin is biased and that it is fair. Both have prior probability . Conditional on either coin, tosses are independent. For the observed head count, the two binomial distribution likelihoods are and . Bayes theorem cancels the common coefficient and equal prior weights, giving
This applies for , including endpoint coin biases with zero-power factors interpreted by the corresponding likelihood. The fair-coin likelihood is positive, so the denominator cannot vanish.

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