Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2013/iii/paper-32/3/a/ii/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 32 3 a ii Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
At stage 1, the maximum-likelihood estimators of the two normal arm means are their sample means. Their difference estimates the treatment effect:Each arm has patients and variance , so independence across arms givesThe quantity is the Fisher information for the mean difference when the common variance is known. The PDF's preliminary expression uses for the variance denominator, although indexes arms and is not defined. The stage-specific sample size is ; the calculation uses this intended reading, consistent with the specified per-arm recruitment and the later weighted estimator. Fresh stage-2 patients are independent of stage-1 patients in the usual trial model; the cumulative stage means themselves are not independent across stages.
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