Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2013/iii/paper-34/4/a/solution

A scoring rule in the reward convention gives for announcing the probability distribution and then observing . Under genuine belief , the expected score is
A proper scoring rule satisfies for every admissible . A strictly proper scoring rule additionally requires equality only when the distributions coincide:
The expected scores must be well defined. A loss convention reverses the inequalities, but the question uses rewards.

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