Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2013/iii/paper-35/4/f/i/solution

Under the fitted compound-symmetry covariance model, an orchard mean based on trees has variance
With the current estimates this falls from to . The numbers of orchards contributing to each marginal remain unchanged, so both marginal treatment-contrast variances fall by a factor : pruning differences have estimated variance and the spray difference has estimated variance .
Adding trees gives a predicted 25% reduction in these variances, but no extra independent orchard replication. It requires 50% more tree measurements and leaves six orchard residual statistical degrees of freedom. Increasing reduces the term but cannot remove the shared orchard component , so gains eventually diminish.

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