Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/ib/paper-1/7h/ii/solution

By the bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error,
For , comparison with the unbiased estimator reduces to
Its roots are and , so
Equality at either endpoint gives the same risk as . At , every risk is zero, so no strict improvement is possible. This illustrates shrinking a sample mean with variance proportional to mean squared: allowing a small bias can reduce variance enough to improve total risk. The best constant is , whose mean squared error is .

New to topics? Read the docs here!