Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/iii/paper-32/1/f/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 32 1 f Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Use a Rao-Blackwell estimator after interim selection, which is exactly conditionally unbiased. The second-stage sample mean alone is unbiased conditional on continuation, but discards the earlier observations. Apply the Rao-Blackwell theorem by averaging conditional on the combined sample mean and the fact of continuation.
Set and . Before truncation, is , a distribution whose mean no longer involves the unknown . After imposing , its mean is . Since , the resulting estimator isIt uses the outcomes from both stages through their combined sample mean. By iterated expectation, , so its conditional estimator bias is zero, compared with the strictly positive estimator bias above. Its conditional variance is no larger than that of the second-stage-only estimate. This does not assert a smaller mean squared error than every biased estimator.
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