Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/iii/paper-32/2/a/solution

There are three free transition intensities: progression, death from the initial state, and death from the advanced state. In the three-state illness-death model, state 3 is an absorbing state, and there is no recovery transition.
Figure 1.
Irreversible three-state progression model with mild, severe and absorbing death states
.
Writing , and , with all three nonnegative, the transition intensity matrix is
Each diagonal entry is minus the sum of the row's outgoing transition intensities, rather than an additional unknown parameter. A continuous-time multi-state model with these rates describes the severity labels in the observations; an explicit cured state would require a richer state space.

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