Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/iii/paper-35/2/c/solution

Independent Jeffreys priors and the two independent binomial distribution likelihood factors give, by Beta-binomial conjugacy,
The Bayesian posteriors remain independent because each observation factor involves only its own probability. Their posterior means are respectively and . Notice that is the probability of saying milk first when tea was first, rather than the probability of a correct tea identification.

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