Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/iii/paper-35/3/f/solution

The requested conclusion is false for the printed parameter values. They give and . Substituting in the Bayes factor yields
Thus the Bayes factor favours by about to one, not . Nor does the conclusion hold for arbitrary large : both parameters enter the expression explicitly. With , taking a much wider alternative, for example , would instead give . That is a different prior assumption and cannot repair the printed calculation silently.

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