Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/iii/paper-36/1/a/solution

Series 1 wanders over a changing level rather than fluctuating around a stable local mean. Its sample autocorrelation function is strongly positive and decreases very slowly. This is the usual diagnostic evidence for an ordinary unit root: an autoregressive polynomial containing , with a zero at , and a stationary model after first differencing. The plots support an integrated model, rather than specifying the number of its remaining stationary autoregressive or moving-average terms.
Series 2 has a pronounced oscillation with period about six observations. Its sample autocorrelation alternates between large positive and negative values with little damping: approximately positive at multiples of six and negative halfway between. Together with the changing amplitude, this suggests a conjugate pair of unit-circle zeros near
The associated real autoregressive factor is . A targeted filter removes this pair; the broader seasonal difference operator also contains it but introduces additional differencing factors. This is the oscillatory unit-root diagnosis from an undamped sample autocorrelation.
Thus Series 1 suggests a zero at 1; Series 2 suggests a conjugate pair on the unit circle at a seasonal frequency. These are model diagnoses, not deductions of exact roots from a finite sample. A stationary model very close to a unit root can look similar, and an undamped periodic covariance can also arise from a stationary random sinusoid. The figure does not identify exact orders or prove nonstationarity by itself.

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