Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/iii/paper-38/3/b/solution

The terminal density is strictly positive and has expectation one under the usual deterministic initial bond-price convention. Its density process is
For , the Bayes formula for conditional expectation under a change of measure gives
The same calculation at gives the finite expectation , so this is a true martingale, not just a formal conditional identity. Thus the continuous-time bank account measured in units of the maturity- bond is a -martingale. This is the forward measure change of numéraire. If the initial bond price were random rather than given, integrability of its reciprocal would need to be included for this true-martingale assertion.

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