Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2015/ii/paper-4/23k/i/solution

Assume , so the conditioning event has positive probability. For a continuous-time Markov chain, write . At each time , the Markov property gives . Using Tonelli theorem for the nonnegative occupation integral,
Division by yields . The discrete-time proof replaces the integral by a sum. Infinite expectations are allowed in the nonnegative sense; if , the numerator is zero directly, avoiding an ambiguous product of zero and infinity.

New to topics? Read the docs here!