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ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2015/iii/paper-34/1/b/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 34 1 b Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
To distinguish the random intensity from its possible values, write it as . Its law is a gamma distribution with shape and rate . HenceFor the Poisson mixture, conditional expectation and conditional variance both equal . The law of total expectation and the law of total variance yieldwhere . Applying the random sum of independent claims formulas with the exponential distribution of the claim sizes gives the portfolio B momentsAt the matched intensity , the expected value for portfolio A is also , whereas its variance is . Thus the expected totals agree, but mixing increases the variance:The extra term is precisely .
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