Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2015/iii/paper-35/3/a/solution

Let be the infection time and its incubation delay, with independent delays having probability density function . Each infection contributes to the symptom-onset intensity according to its delay density. Back-calculation of infection incidence uses the convolution
Observed onset intensity is infection intensity convolved with the incubation distribution. If infections begin at a known , take for , reducing the first integral's lower limit to . Otherwise past infections must be included; the observation window's start need not be the infection process's start.

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