Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2015/iii/paper-37/2/c/solution

First justify the dependence structure rather than assume that adjacent squares behave like an ordinary lag-one ARCH model. Write . Iterating its nonnegative recurrence gives
The product coefficient has expected value , so it tends to zero in probability. The stationary are a tight family; consequently the remainder tends to zero in probability, without needing independence between that remainder's factors. The increasing partial sums therefore give the representation
This proves the parity decomposition of a lag-two ARCH process: even and odd observations are functions of disjoint noise families. It also shows that the positive scale is a function of past noise, independent of . The conditional expectation of given past noise is zero, and the second-moment recursion is . independence of the parity families gives the adjacent-square covariance. Thus
To establish finiteness of the fourth moment before using its recursion, note that the norm of the th term in the positive series for is . The triangle inequality in L2 space makes the series square-integrable when . independence of the current noise and past scale then yields
and hence
If , a finite would make , which is impossible. Its fourth moment is then infinite. The adjacent-square product remains integrable by parity independence, even in that case.

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