Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2015/iii/paper-37/3/c/solution

For the moving-average process of order one, , , and . Regressing each endpoint on the single intervening observation leaves residual covariance and residual variance . Therefore its lag-two partial autocorrelation function is
The denominator is positive. In particular, the moving-average autocorrelation cutoff at lag one does not make the lag-two partial correlation zero unless .

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