 Solution

For a local axisymmetric Fourier mode, the Toomre stability criterion balances three contributions to the squared oscillation frequency:The radial epicyclic frequency supplies rotational restoration at long wavelengths; isothermal sound speed and pressure stabilize short wavelengths; disk self-gravity destabilizes intermediate wavelengths. Minimizing over $|k|$ gives $|k|=\pi G{\Sigma }_0/c_s^2$ and ${\omega }_{\min }^2={\kappa }^2(1-Q^{-2})$. Axisymmetric gravitational instability occurs when $Q<1$.

In a centrally dominated Keplerian disk, $\kappa =\Omega$ and vertical hydrostatic equilibrium gives $c_s\simeq H\Omega$. Using ${\Omega }^2=G{M}_{\ast }/r^3$ and a local disk-mass estimate $M_D\sim \pi r^2{\Sigma }_0$,This is the disk mass form of the Toomre criterion. An actual enclosed mass depends on the radial surface density profile and changes an order-one coefficient. In particular, a profile proportional to $r^{-3/2}$ has $M_D(<r)\simeq 4\pi r^2{\Sigma }_0$ when its inner cutoff is negligible.

For the protosolar estimate, take $M_{\ast }\simeq M_{\odot }\simeq 2\times 10^{33}\mathrm{g}$. This solar mass is implicit in identifying the central star with the young Sun. The supplied constant disk aspect ratio givesUsing the printed approximate astronomical unit and gravitational constant, one can also obtain $\Omega (1\mathrm{AU})\simeq 3.7\times 10^{-7}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$ and $c_s\simeq 3.7\times 10^5{\mathrm{cm}\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$; they give the same $Q$. The gravitational constant cancels from the mass form.

At one astronomical unit the disk is very stable, with $Q\simeq 640$. Formal extrapolation givesThis is far beyond the planetary region and any plausible extent of the minimum-mass solar nebula. Moreover, the extrapolated enclosed disk mass is already a substantial fraction of a solar mass, so the centrally dominated approximation becomes questionable. The formal radius is not a prediction of a real unstable outer nebula. Direct gas fragmentation by gravitational instability is unlikely to have formed Solar System planets in this model. Core accretion is the more natural route; an earlier substantially more massive or colder disk would be a different model. Even $Q<1$ alone does not guarantee fragmentation, because sufficiently rapid cooling is also needed.