Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2016/ib/paper-4/19h/b/solution

Put for the unrestricted fit. Under , the best slope is still because the design is centered. Orthogonality of the residuals to the constant vector gives
At either fitted mean, the maximum-likelihood estimator of variance is . The ratio used by the generalized likelihood-ratio test is consequently
Small likelihood ratios correspond to large . Under , part (a) gives independent and . Thus has the Student's t-distribution with degrees of freedom. The exact size-5% critical region is
where is the 97.5th percentile of that distribution. The denominator uses the unbiased residual variance estimate, not the likelihood variance denominator .
Under an alternative, the same statistic has the representation
The joint law of is parameter-free, and has disappeared. Therefore
where . This is also the noncentral t-distribution description of the power. As explained in part (a), an exact residual-based test requires .

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