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ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2016/iii/paper-207/5/b/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 207 5 b Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Put and , so and . Its expectation is not generally one and depends on censoring. Under independent censoring, condition on : the exponential distribution givesWriting for the observed event indicator, it follows that . The exponential mean imputation under independent censoring therefore gives a modified Cox–Snell residual with known mean:On censoring, the added one is the expected remaining transformed lifetime, by memorylessness of the exponential distribution. This gives a mean-one variable, not necessarily another exponential variable. Equivalently, is a martingale residual with mean zero. Independent censoring, or its appropriate conditional version, is essential for these identities; arbitrary informative censoring does not justify the correction.
Fit a model using the relevant covariates, calculate , and plot these martingale residuals against a candidate explanatory variable or against an included variable's value. A smooth systematic trend away from zero can indicate an omitted effect or an unsuitable functional form, such as a nonlinear age effect. After fitting an appropriate effect, the residual trend should diminish. The equivalent plot of has mean-one reference rather than zero.
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