Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2016/iii/paper-207/6/b/ii/solution

An individual has neither died nor been censored by time exactly when and . Under independent censoring, this has probability . Thus the probability of leaving observation by either route is
The two pieces agree at . The expression counts the first of death and censoring, so it does not double-count individuals who would eventually experience both.

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