 Solution

Define $P_{\theta ,n}=d^{-1}{\sum }_{S\in \mathcal{S}}{P}_{\theta ,S}^{\otimes n}$. Expanding its chi-squared divergence by the second moment of a mixture likelihood ratio, and using the supplied one-observation cross moment and independence, givesHere $S,T$ are independent uniform members of the specified family of cyclic intervals. Their overlap $R=|S\cap T|$ does not have the hypergeometric distribution of arbitrary uniform $k$-subsets. The family's geometry must be retained.

Let $x={\theta }^2{R}^2/k^2<1/4$. Since $-\log (1-x)\le x/(1-x)\le 2x$ and $R^2/k^2\le R/k$, we obtain $(1-x{)}^{-n/2}\le e^{nx}\le e^{n{\theta }^{2}R/k}$. Taking the expected value proves the upper bound. The factor $n$ in the last exponent is present in the PDF and missing in the TeX aid.