Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2016/iii/paper-211/4/c/solution

Let and be the numbers of units of the numéraire and the stock in a replicating strategy. The two terminal payoffs of the European call option are and , so
Solving these simultaneous equations gives and . The initial replication cost is
As an independent pricing check, let be the risk-neutral probability of the state under the numéraire measure. The discounted stock must have initial value one and terminal mean one:
Risk-neutral valuation then gives . The physical probabilities are not the numéraire-measure probabilities.

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