Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2016/iii/paper-211/5/a/solution

Backward induction makes every adapted and integrable: the conditional expectation of an integrable random variable is integrable, and . The Snell envelope recursion directly gives , so is a supermartingale.
If is a submartingale, iterating its defining inequality gives . Starting at and applying the tower property of conditional expectation backwards shows
This last conditional expectation is a true martingale. The conclusions are
In the second case waiting until attains the optimal stopping value. It is not generally true that : that further equality holds when itself is a martingale.

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