Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2017/ii/paper-4/6b/solution

At an endemic equilibrium, , so . Substitution into the susceptible equation gives
These values are physically positive exactly when . The Jacobian matrix at this equilibrium is
Both eigenvalues have negative real parts, so the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Its decay exponents are
The regime means recovery is rapid compared with demographic replacement. For fixed away from the threshold, the exponents form a complex conjugate pair with frequency approximately . Hence
Strictly, oscillations require ; alone does not ensure this uniformly for every arbitrarily close to one or arbitrarily large.
Vaccinating a fraction of newborns replaces the susceptible input by . The effective basic reproduction number is , and the same calculation replaces by . Provided and the oscillatory approximation remains applicable, vaccination lengthens the oscillation period, because is smaller. Extremely near eradication the exponents become real and there is no oscillation period to extrapolate indefinitely.

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