Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2017/iii/paper-206/2/a/solution

For independent random variables , the full logistic regression has linear predictor
Layout A is the reference level in a regression factor. The smaller model sets , leaving the same logit link and the price predictor. In either case
The saturated statistical model allows a separate probability per observation; its maximizing probabilities are , with log-likelihood zero under . Hence the binomial deviance for either fitted model is
Equivalently, write the summands as . The fitted probabilities differ between the two models, but the definition of binomial deviance is the same. A residual deviance for individual binary data need not itself have an accurate chi-squared distribution approximation; the nested-model difference used next has a different asymptotic justification.

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