Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2017/iii/paper-206/4/e/solution

The command fits a Gaussian generalized additive mixed model
The population growth curve is a centered penalized regression spline with a cubic regression basis. The incubator term remains a random slope without a random intercept, because ~0+hours removes the intercept. A population linear component is allowed within the smooth's unpenalized part; curvature is penalized rather than being required.
A gamm fit returns a list with gam and lme components. Plot the population smooth and pointwise uncertainty bands with
plot(fly.model2$gam, se=TRUE, residuals=TRUE)
Inspect whether the fitted curve departs materially from an affine function, particularly in regions supported by observations. The effective degrees of freedom near one suggest that the penalization has selected an approximately linear centered smooth. Bands and partial residuals help distinguish convincing curvature from noisy deviations, although pointwise bands are not a simultaneous test of linearity. A formal comparison would need to account for both smoothing selection and the incubator dependence. The smooth plot tests the visual plausibility of a common straight growth curve while retaining incubator-specific slope variation.

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