Random slope

A random slope multiplies a predictor by a group-specific latent coefficient. With $b_j\sim N(0,{\tau }^2)$, a contribution $b_j{t}_i$ induces covariance ${\tau }^2{t}_i{t}_k$ for two observations in group $j$. A random slope does not necessarily include a random intercept.

When a person's latent slope has normal distribution $N({\beta }_1,{\tau }_1^2)$, its $u$th quantile is ${\beta }_1+{\tau }_1{\Phi }^{-1}(u)$. Multiply by an elapsed time to obtain the corresponding latent change quantile. This describes population variation between people; it is distinct from a confidence interval for the mean slope and from a prediction interval that includes measurement error.

The Gaussian model $Y=X\beta +Zb+\epsilon$ with $b\sim N(0,D)$ and independent $\epsilon \sim N(0,{\sigma }^{2}I)$ has marginal law $N(X\beta ,ZD{Z}^T+{\sigma }^{2}I)$. Its group coefficients are integrated out of the marginal likelihood function. The special random-slope model uses predictor values in the grouping columns of $Z$.