Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2017/iii/paper-206/6/d/solution

The universal kriging model has a linear drift in and a zero-mean Gaussian residual field:
The Gau range parameter in this software is , since its semivariogram uses . The output gives , , and , hence . The exact Gaussian range is infinite; the 95-percent practical range is approximately in the coordinate distance units.
The BLUE=TRUE option asks for the best linear unbiased estimator of the drift, rather than the full field kriging prediction. Thus the two printed fitted trends give at and at . Therefore
There is no coefficient in the drift. The reported variances and are the variances of the corresponding estimated trend values, not full-field prediction variances. They do not determine the slope variance without its covariance with the intercept. The interpolated map can still vary with through the correlated residual prediction, even though the fitted deterministic drift depends only on .

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