Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2017/iii/paper-207/2/a/i/solution

A Type I error is rejecting a true null hypothesis. Here it means declaring a statistical association between the biomarker and bowel cancer when, in the population and under the association model being tested, there is no statistical association. It is a false positive association finding, not merely a large estimation error. A test with level limits this probability to under the null hypothesis, subject to valid calibration; the p-value is not the probability that the null hypothesis is true.

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