Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2017/iii/paper-207/3/a/i/solution

The first departure from the no-symptoms state has an exponential distribution with rate . Spending the entire interval there means no departure at all, so
This is the holding time survival probability. The transition probability only says that the patient is symptom-free at the endpoint, allowing an onset and recovery in between, and is therefore not the answer. The formula also covers , when state 1 is absorbing.

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