Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2018/iii/paper-201/3/b/solution

Let . Since ,
Permuting preserves their joint probability distribution and leaves every generator of unchanged. Therefore, for each bounded -measurable ,
This is the symmetry of exchangeable random variables. By the defining identity of conditional expectation, all are equal almost surely. Summing these conditional expectations and using that is -measurable gives
Hence the conditional expectation of a summand given future partial sums is
The integrability of each justifies every conditional expectation above.

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