Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2018/iii/paper-216/4/c/solution

Fix the observed , let , and let . The E-step forms
For finite expected log-likelihoods and , the Jensen inequality gives
The first inequality allows additional mass outside the old complete-data support; it is equality when the relevant supports coincide. Ratios are taken on the support of . If a candidate assigns zero density on positive -mass, its is minus infinity and it cannot be an improving finite M-step.
An M-step of the expectation-maximization algorithm chooses with , so
This EM likelihood monotonicity also holds for a generalized M-step that merely increases , rather than maximizing it exactly. It is a statement about the observed-data likelihood function.

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