Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2018/iii/paper-218/5/a/solution

Use the stationary autoregressive process of order one
Multiplication by and expectation, using independence of the innovation from the past, gives the autocovariance equation . With , define the sample autocovariances using the same denominator:
Substitution into that equation gives the Yule–Walker estimator for an autoregressive process of order one
This is exactly the lag-one sample autocorrelation function under the divisor- convention, provided the sample has positive variance. Using different divisors for different lags would change the estimator.

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