Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2018/iii/paper-219/2/i/solution

Write , and . The latent absolute magnitude and measurement error are independent normal variables, so their convolution is normal. After integrating out the individual intrinsic magnitudes, each apparent magnitude has distribution
Consequently the likelihood function for the independent sample is
This is the marginal observational likelihood of a hierarchical Bayesian model, not the likelihood conditional on each unknown intrinsic magnitude. The individual errors remain heteroscedastic through their known .

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