Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2019/ii/paper-1/6c/solution

In this discrete age-structured population model, individuals of age present during the breeding season each produce newborns, so the number entering age zero is
An age- individual survives the following winter with probability and is then age in the next year, giving
Together with the initial age distribution, these equations determine every later cohort.
Substitute into the survival equation. Then
and iteration gives
The birth equation becomes
A nonzero population mode therefore requires the Discrete Euler-Lotka equation
For nonnegative vital rates with at least one surviving reproductive age and enough decay to make the series finite, is continuous and strictly decreasing on , tends to infinity as , and tends to zero as . The intermediate value theorem gives one positive solution, and strict monotonicity makes it unique.
The value is the expected lifetime offspring count under these fixed rates. Since decreases, places the root at and the population grows geometrically; places it at and the population shrinks. Equality gives replacement, .

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