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ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2019/iii/paper-350/1/a/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2019 iii Paper 350 1 a Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be the probability density function of the unknown and that of the noise, both relative to Lebesgue measure. By independence of random variables, the conditional distribution of the measurement given has density . Thus its likelihood function and the joint density areThe Bayesian model evidence is the marginal data densityBayes' theorem gives the posterior density solving this Bayesian inverse problem:This formula applies when . Since by Tonelli theorem, these conditions hold almost everywhere under the marginal data law. Values of a conditional distribution at exceptional data are not determined by the joint law. The posterior mean or a maximum a posteriori estimate can then give a point estimate, while the full posterior density describes the remaining uncertainty.
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