Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2021/ib/paper-1/19h/a/solution

A random time is a stopping time when the event is determined by . The Strong Markov property says that, conditionally on and , the process is a fresh Markov chain started at , independent of the history before .
Use the state space , with absorbing. Observe the chain only when it is at square 2. From , the change in wealth by the next return to square 2 has distribution
Indeed, heads lands on square 3 and returns to square 2 after losing £1. After tails reaches square 4, the remaining two or three moves give the other cases.
For ,
Thus is a martingale for the embedded wealth random walk . Stopping when it first reaches or a large upper level and then letting that level tend to infinity gives
The upper-bound contribution vanishes because ; equivalently, this is the smaller probability solution of the first-step equation.

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