Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2021/ib/paper-1/6h/b/solution

The Rao-Blackwell theorem states that if is sufficient and is an estimator with finite variance, then
has the same expectation as and no larger variance; it preserves unbiasedness. The tower property of conditional expectation gives
The law of total variance gives
Sufficiency ensures that is a statistic whose definition does not depend on the unknown parameter. The inequality is strict exactly when the conditional variance is positive with positive probability.

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