Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2022/iii/paper-210/3/solution

Put
The degree- local polynomial estimator is , where
Define the local polynomial Gram matrix
Assume that it is positive definite, and write
The normal equations then give
Thus the estimator is a linear estimator in nonparametric regression, and the displayed are its effective kernel weights.
If is a polynomial of degree at most , then for some . Feeding into the weighted least-squares problem gives the exact zero-residual fit , whose intercept is . Hence the polynomial reproduction property of local polynomial regression is
Let . The Hölder class consists of functions with derivatives through order bounded by and
The subclass additionally makes every derivative of order below -Lipschitz.
Suppose . Taylor's theorem and that additional Lipschitz condition give, for the degree- Taylor polynomial at ,
On the support of , , so
For the regular design , at most points satisfy when . Polynomial reproduction cancels , and therefore
Thus the universal exponent in the question is , with the displayed choice of .

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